Finding a value bet is the most important part of professional sports betting, which turns the activity from a game of chance into a long-term plan that is statistically successful. When a bookmaker gives odds for an outcome that are higher than the actual chance of that outcome happening, that’s called a value bet. To really have a mathematical edge over the house, which is very important for professional bettors, you need to learn how to figure out this difference or Expected Value.

 

 

The Formula for Expected Value

 

 

Finding the Real Probability

The whole procedure depends on being able to precisely figure out the real chance of the event happening without taking the bookmaker’s price into account. A lot of statistical modeling and knowledge about the field are needed, to help in figuring out your own realistic percentage probability.

 

 

How to Figure Out the Positive EV

To find the Expected Value (EV), you multiply the chance of winning by the possible net profit and then subtract the chance of losing by the amount staked. A bet is only worth something if this last number is a positive one. If you can bet on something with a 60% probability of winning and the odds say there’s only a 55% chance, you’ve identified a positive EV opportunity that will guarantee you a profit over hundreds of bets.

 

Last Insights

When you calculate value bets, you stop thinking about how to win individual bets and start thinking about how to make good math selections. You can make money in the long run by always betting where your estimated likelihood is higher than the bookmaker’s indicated probability.